BERLIN -- Not long ago, German politicians and journalists
confidently declared that the euro crisis was over; Germany and the
European Union, they believed, had weathered the storm. Today, we know
that this was just another mistake in an ongoing crisis that has been
full of them. The latest error, as with most of the earlier ones,
stemmed from wishful thinking -- and, once again, it is Greece that has
broken the reverie.
Even before the leftist Syriza party's
overwhelming victory
in Greece's recent general election, it was obvious that, far from
being over, the crisis was threatening to worsen. Austerity -- the
policy of saving your way out of a demand shortfall -- simply does not
work. In a shrinking economy, a country's debt-to-GDP ratio rises rather
than falls, and Europe's recession-ridden crisis countries have now
saved themselves into a depression, resulting in mass unemployment,
alarming levels of poverty and scant hope.
Warnings of a severe
political backlash went unheeded. Shadowed by Germany's deep-seated
inflation taboo, Chancellor Angela Merkel's government stubbornly
insisted that the pain of austerity was essential to economic recovery;
the EU had little choice but to go along. Now, with Greece's voters
having driven out their country's exhausted and corrupt elite in favor
of a party that has vowed to end austerity, the backlash has arrived.
But,
though Syriza's victory may mark the start of the next chapter in the
euro crisis, the political -- and possibly existential -- danger that
Europe faces runs deeper. The Swiss National Bank's unexpected
abandonment of the franc's euro peg on Jan. 15, though posing no
immediate financial threat, was an enormous psychological blow, one that
reflected and reinforced a massive loss of confidence. The euro, as the
SNB's move implied, remains as fragile as ever. And the subsequent
decision by the European Central Bank
to purchase more than €1 trillion ($1.14 trillion) in eurozone
governments' bonds, though correct and necessary, has dimmed confidence
further.
The Greek election outcome was foreseeable for more than a
year. If negotiations between the "troika" (the European Commission,
the ECB, and the International Monetary Fund) and the new Greek
government succeed, the result will be a face-saving compromise for both
sides; if no agreement is reached, Greece will default.
Though no
one can say what a Greek default would mean for the euro, it would
certainly entail risks to the currency's continued existence. Just as
surely, the mega-disaster that might result from a eurozone breakup
would not spare Germany.
A compromise would
de facto result
in a loosening of austerity, which entails significant domestic risks
for Merkel (though less than a failure of the euro would). But, in view
of her immense popularity at home, including within her own party,
Merkel is underestimating the options at her disposal. She could do much
more, if only she trusted herself.
In the end, she may have no
choice. Given the impact of the Greek election outcome on political
developments in Spain, Italy, and France, where anti-austerity sentiment
is similarly running high, political pressure on the Eurogroup of
eurozone finance ministers -- from both the right and the left -- will
increase significantly. It does not take a prophet to predict that the
latest chapter of the euro crisis will leave Germany's austerity policy
in tatters -- unless Merkel really wants to take the enormous risk of
letting the euro fail.
There is no indication that she does. So,
regardless of which side -- the troika or the new Greek government --
moves first in the coming negotiations, Greece's election has already
produced an unambiguous defeat for Merkel and her austerity-based
strategy for sustaining the euro. Simultaneous debt reduction and
structural reforms, we now know, will overextend any democratically
elected government because they overtax its voters. And, without growth,
there will be no structural reforms, either, however necessary they may
be.
That is Greece's lesson for Europe. The question now is not
whether the German government will accept it, but when. Will it take a
similar debacle for Spain's conservatives in that country's coming
election to force Merkel to come to terms with reality?
Nothing
but growth will decide the future of the euro. Even Germany, the EU's
biggest economy, faces an enormous need for infrastructure investment.
If its government stopped seeing "zero new debt" as the Holy Grail, and
instead invested in modernizing the country's transport, municipal
infrastructure, and digitization of households and industry, the euro --
and Europe -- would receive a mighty boost. Moreover, a massive public
investment program could be financed at exceptionally low (and, for
Germany, conceivably even negative) interest rates.
The eurozone's
cohesion and the success of its necessary structural reforms -- and
thus its very survival -- now depend on whether it can overcome its
growth deficit. Germany has room for fiscal maneuver. The message from
Greece's election is that Merkel should use it, before it is too late.
© Project Syndicate sourcehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/joschka-fischer/greece-german-austerity_b_6592032.html?utm_hp_ref=world